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By Morris J.S.

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The questionnaires were administered in quiz-like fashion in a natural classroom situation, and the respondents' names were recorded on the answer sheets. Each respondent answered a small number (typically 2-4) of questions each of which required, at most, 2 min. The questions were introduced as a study of people's intuitions about chance. They were preceded by standard oral instructions which explained the appropriate question in detail. The experimental design was counterbalanced to prevent confounding with school or age.

This unjustified confidence in the replicability of significance has severe consequences for the conduct of research: it leads to unrealistic expectations concerning significance, and results in the planning of studies which are deficient in statistical power, see Cohen (1962). 2. Reflection of Randomness To be representative, it is not sufficient that an uncertain event be similar to its parent population. The event should also reflect the properties of the uncertain process by which it is generated, that is, it should appear random.

10 0 CATEGORY Fig. 2. 50. small or in a large sample. Each S was paid $1 for participation in the experiment and an additional $1 if his answer to one of the problems (randomly selected after completion of the task) was correct. To control for response bias, each problem was presented in two forms. Half the Ss judged, for all three problems, whether an outcome that is more extreme than the specified critical value is more likely to occur in a small or in a large sample. The correct answer, of course, is that an extreme outcome is more likely to occur in a small sample.

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